Episode 627: Saving the Strike Zone, the NL Ascendant, and Other Emails
Date March 4, 2015 Summary Ben and Sam answer listener emails about an all-catcher lineup, league strength, robot umps, and more. Topics * All-catcher lineup * NFL-style schedule for baseball * AL vs. NL strength * Changing closer usage * Left-handed reliever use * Robot umpires and catcher framing Intro Jackie Lomax, "I Just Don't Know" Outro Episode outtake sound clip Banter * Episode 626 follow-up: The New York Times reported that the pitching machine Chris Young struck out against was throwing only fastballs. * Sam wonders if there is PITCHf/x data for the machine, and if those sensors are always turned on in the park. Email Questions * Dan (New Jersey): "If you had to field a starting lineup using only current MLB catchers, who would you choose to play each position?" * Eric (San Francisco, CA): "Imagine for a moment that baseball sees a drastic reduction in popularity over the next few years and the commissioner blindly decides to fix the problem by emulating the NFL schedule of one game per week and 16 games per season. How do you think the in-game strategy would change? Would you change the composition of your roster? Make riskier managerial decisions? Seek out lower variance hitters and avoid streaky players or the opposite? Do you think a full week's preparation for each matchup would favor pitchers, hitters, or neither?" * Dave: "Do you think Andrew Friedman moving to the NL, following Theo Epstein, will mark the time the NL returned to dominance over the AL? League dominance seems cyclical and I think it's about to switch to the NL." * Kirk: "From looking at the offseason, which league do you think got better: AL or NL?" * Reza: "Let's say at some point in the near future or alternate universe ballclubs adopt the gospel of not bringing your best reliever, supposedly your closer in today's world, in just for the 9th inning. In this brave new world managers will bring their best reliever at the most critical point in the game. This means that this pitcher will be going against the opposite team's best hitters at high pressure situations. What would be acceptable standard stats for such pitchers? Presumably they will no longer be called in to pitch against the bottom third of the lineup as much as before, therefore they will not have the luxury of padding their stats. So how do we judge these pitchers based on their stats? I know there are leverage index and WPA stats but is there any indicator that accounts for the quality of the opposition in high leverage situations? If this was going to happen would trying to statistically place a value on these pitchers replace catcher framing as the new hot indicator to quantify?" * David: "I enjoyed Ben's Grantland piece on pitch framing. What happens if the strike zone becomes electronically enforced in the near future? The technology exists to make this a reality and it would seem to make the game both faster and fairer since the perceived bias in favor of better players or players with more seniority would disappear, at least in terms of how balls and strikes are called. A particular note, the current agreement between MLB and the umpire's union ends following the 2019 season. Perhaps an electronic strike zone could be implemented as soon as 2020. Even more interesting, one would think that a player like Austin Hedges, whose value is primarily in his ability to frame pitches, should be promoted or dealt at full market value, presuming at least a few teams still exist who don't believe an electronic strike zone is on the horizon, as soon as possible to ensure that the team that possess a pitch framing reliant player gets as much value out of that player while they still can. What do you think? Teams tend to front run rule changes all the time, or at least that's part of the narrative for why so many teams are willing to forfeit their ability to sign international players for more than $300K for the next several seasons." Play Index * Sam wants to know which team in recent history has used the fewest left-handed relievers in a season. * Since 2000, the 2004 Milwaukee Brewers are the only team to not use a left-handed reliever in a season. * Prior to the 2004 Brewers the last team to not use a left-handed reliever was the 1947 Philadelphia Athletics. * In 2004 the Angels only used one left reliever, Dusty Bergman, the entire season. He only pitched 2 innings in one appearance. Notes * No catcher stole more than 5 bases in 2014. * Players mentioned for a potential all-catcher lineup are: Russell Martin, Buster Posey, Drew Butera, Jonathan Lucroy, Devin Mesoraco, and Caleb Joseph. * Sam thinks that in a 16 game season baserunners would be at such a premium that teams would carry several Billy Hamilton type pinch runners. * Ben thinks that PITCHf/x technology is close to being able to call balls and strikes, but does not want a change. Sam does not think a change will happen within the next 15 years but thinks that as long as a strike zone exists then it should be enforced as evenly as possible. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 627: Saving the Strike Zone, the NL Ascendant, and Other Emails * A Yankee Hurler Shows Great Mechanics by Billy Witz * Frame Jobs by Ben Lindbergh * The Strike Zone Solution by Sam Miller Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes